Will you give back the profits that you make this time as
you did in 2000? You sure don't want to, but you are not going to get any help
from your broker.
The investors (Not really the right term. They were
gamblers.) had bought stocks and mutual funds during the 90's and seen them
have huge advances. They thought they were going to retire early, buy an island
in the Caribbean and drink rum and coke all day with no hassels. All of a
sudden the bull was attacked and eaten by a grizzly bear. Dreams of comfortable
early retirement went up in smoke as the bull was barbequed.
We saw the technology stocks and many mutual funds lose
about 80% of their value. Many people did not want to open their monthly
brokerage statements and I couldn't blame them. Were there any way those losses
could have been avoided? You betcha, but you won't hear that from your broker.
There is what I call portfolio insurance. It doesn't cost
any thing and anyone can have it at no charge. Brokerage companies don't want
you to use it much less even find out about it. It is a way of protecting your
cash from being eaten by that nasty bear.
While the market is going up you don't even think about any
financial calamity, but history has shown as far back as you want to look that
the stock market goes up and it also goes DOWN. Over long periods of time it
does increase at about 6% per year (including dividends and the inflation
factor). During the 90's everyone was a financial genius and saw their accounts
going up about 12% per year or more. That is not a sustainable pattern. Those
periods do occur and are followed by years of declining prices. You don't want
to own stock then, do you?
What you have to decide is how much are you willing to give
up before you decide to sell. How much of your money are you willing to risk
from here where you are right now. Is it 2%, 5%, 10%, 20% or more? In 2000 we
saw $200 stocks go down to $5.00. You sure don't want to take that ride again.
After you make your decision you call your broker and tell
(not ask) him you want to place a trailing stop loss order of 7% (whatever) on
your position. Most assuredly he will try to talk you out of doing it. That 7%
(?) is your insurance that you won't have to sit through a 20%, 40% or more
down draught.
He will not "watch your account". That is your
money not his. If you care about it you are the only one who will watch it.
Place your open stop-loss order and keep your profits.
0 comments :
Post a Comment