There were many fewer shareholders and the daily volume was
a fraction of what it is at present. No one thought you would every be able to
trade a billion or more shares in one day. Of course that was in the old days
when they had tickers and the word digital was something you did with your
fingers.
Now we have world markets. There seems to be a stock
exchange in almost every country. Did you know there is a stock exchange (of
sorts) in Baghdad? I have not heard if they are back in business now that the
war is over.
It is kind of amazing that with all these new traders and
with all the varied stocks in every part of the globe that market mechanics
would have changed. They have not.
As a technical analyst and trader (I was an exchange member
and floor trader for 17 years) I still see the same trading patterns I saw 30
years ago. Wouldn't you think with this tremendous expansion that something
would be different? It isn't. Why?
The reason is very simple. People don't change. The basics
of the market - fear and greed - still dominate. Emotions have not differed in
thousands of years. As far back as recorded history people have reacted in
almost the same way.
The emotions of traders can be plotted and you can see it
in the charts that are printed out each day to show the price action of the
market. Once an upward trend sets in people begin to buy, putting the market
higher attracting more buyers until the greater fool application has run its
course.
In the years I have been trading I have seen many new
technical indicators. When you think about it almost all of them are based on
the emotions of the mass of investors, even such simple indicators as moving
averages. As a continuing student of the market I have studied and have used
many of them. I don't know any successful investor who does not use them.
A broker or financial planner who does know understand and
use these indicators is doomed to failure. If anyone in the financial field
every says they don't work you can be sure he is a loser because he has not taken
the time to learn his trade. He is worse than a carpenter who does not know how
to use a hammer and saw.
A good technician can go to any exchange in the world, not
know the language and still make money.
Stock charts are like EKGs that doctors read to see how
your heart is doing. Some doctors can understand them and other have not
learned.
The basic principles of trading have not changed over the
years even though the market is many times larger than it was because people
have not changed. Whether you invest on your local exchange or globally
everything remains the same.
0 comments :
Post a Comment