The dollar took in the last trading time a decline towards,
and the technical view of the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar )
looks particularly worrying. But there is a big gap between mild retracement
and a fully developed bear trend that needs to be filled by the fundamentals
and / or a sentiment break. Until now, we have to take this important step yet
- but the risk is certainly real, since the cops recognize the significant
movement of the benchmark, despite the positive balance between risk appetite
and proof that a QE3 reduction perhaps up to the meeting in September, not
enough agreement place. The shared Outlook jeopardized some of the majors,
while others have a head start.
With the short-term decline of the U.S. dollar under 10,750
on a two-week low, making pairs like the EUR / USD and the GBP / USD
significant technical advances in the direction of greater anti-dollar
turnaround. The former exceeded the well-guarded number 1.3000, while the cable
uncovered over 100 pips and 1.5220. Yet at the same time refused the
risk-intensive of the major currencies, the AUD / USD to follow the same
progress.
After it lost about 800 pips during the month, this pair is probably
extremely oversold. Moreover, it is most sensitive to risk trends. However,
this combination was not sufficient to reduce the scale for a break above 0.9700.
This comparison provides a fundamental look at what the market increasingly
influenced - pullback as the hopes of the "taper" are reduced .
The last trading day produced a few highlights for those who
speculate when the stimulus regime, the Fed reached the summit. The St. Louis
Fed president - a dove and tuner - offered little in order to add something to
his recent call to maintain the course. Nevertheless, his reference points to a
report that U.S. households have recovered only 45 percent of the lost during
the Great Recession prosperity again, that he does not intend to vote for lower
monthly QE purchases at Fed meeting in June. Meanwhile, GDP shrank the updated
report of the first Slow quarter - a decline that some might view as an
additional justification for a deferment for a few months for the scaling back
of the stimulus in order to observe the data. The worrying question for the
short-term boost in the dollar is how much the soaring currency based on the
last month of the early resolution of trades that stemmed from the anticipation
or simply to comply with the Fed . While we consider this question, it is
equally important not to lose sight of the general risk trends. If these are
not in play, the dollar and most other markets are simply different and often
separate driving forces behind the lead. However, when using fear or greed,
everything aligns to volatility and trend .
Japanese Yen continued to be threatened by breakout as
Nikkei and JGB are volatile
The volatility levels in Japanese markets are still
dangerously high. And when the activity is high, the chances are forced,
critical breakouts that develop on trends, much bigger. Until now, the Yen
Crosses suffered only limited by the outbreak of the turmoil that we saw on the
Japanese stock and bond markets. This division is, however, unlikely to be
permanent. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds hovering at 0.90 per
cent ( almost 50 percent higher than it was a few weeks ago), and the Nikkei
225 is an official "bear market", 14 percent lower than the high of
the last week . Some could see the excitement in the Japanese financial markets
as a trigger that foreign investors withdraw their capital from the country
(which is the Yen Crosses increased), but this could also be a contribution to
risk aversion prove. And the carry-processing is a serious danger.
Euro crisis-tolerant traders, as long as they do not lose
money
The fundamental valuation of the euro zone was nothing short
of catastrophic this week. And yet the euro this week is higher than all its
major currency, except Safe Havens or high-yielding currencies. Those who
invest in Europe know how to practice in patience. Between shocks crisis
(Greece, Ireland, Spain, Cyprus), there were incredible opportunities for bids
on low plants. However, there is always a point at the patience to dangerous
carelessness , and the downgrading of GDP by the OECD, the stability warning
the ECB and Bank of pressing problems that the settlement can be rough.
New Zealand Dollar Dollar Traders show limited fear of
future RBNZ intervention According to their website, which sold Reserve Bank of
New Zealand (RBNZ) net NZ $ 256 million in April to reduce the strength of the
local currency. This announcement corresponds to the repeated statement of the
Chairman Graeme Wheeler that the currency "pretty overrated" is, and
that he wanted the view of the New Zealand Dollar was a "one-way" bet
change. This message gave the kiwi a slight bump, and he lost all of his pairs.
Nevertheless, the concern will be enough to intervene to keep the currency low?
What the RBNZ really needs is risk aversion.
Canadian Dollar looks in the GDP report of the first Quarter
risk of further volatility over
In the last trading day of the week we face a significant
chance of volatility for the Canadian dollar against. There are the GDP figures
for the first Quarter and An Mai . Forecasts for the annualized measure foresee
a significant increase of growth (from 0.6 percent in the fourth quarter to 2.3
percent), so the bar was pretty high. Nevertheless, there will be a surprise
mitigating factor, as well as the monthly numbers will be published. The
biggest impact this will have on couples who are further away from the risk
(AUD / CAD, NZD / CAD), which will react aggressively.
British Pound ignored enhance growth and confidence survey
data
British consumers are more confident in this month, and the
growth expectations tend upwards, according to recently published data.
However, the sterling seems to have received little trust with the data. Show
the headlines earlier today that the GfK consumer sentiment survey is for the
current month rose to -22 faster than expected - which is the highest level
since May 2011. At the same time published a British Chamber of Commerce
uniformly better GDP forecast , and the outlook for 2013, up from an expansion
of 0.6 percent to 0.9 percent.
Gold does break above $ 1400, but where is the momentum?
The risk of breakouts was real gold finally broke out of its
narrow constraint $ 25 and broke through $ 1,400. Despite this increase by 1.5
percent but this was relatively weak when you consider how long the range
needed to adjust to normal and the headlines that make such optimistic views on
commodities over the votes of a stimulus derived from inflation. This lack of
momentum on the opposite side of a key technical level looks very much like
another benchmark of - of dollars. The connection between the two remains. A
strong movement toward a $ 1,500 U.S. dollars fall is the best condition .
0 comments :
Post a Comment