The currency market is not just my job. It is a passion and
interest of mine and has been so for many years now. I started covering it in
1991 as a journalist in the run up to the Sterling crisis the subsequent year and
“Black Wednesday”, September 16, 1992, when the UK currency was forced out of
the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM)
and promptly collapsed in value. The abiding
memory of mine to this day is of the sheer power of the currency market in its
ability to “defeat” the might and resolve of such a respected central bank as
the Bank of England, which gave everything it had in its effort to defend
sterling’s ERM “floor” against the Deutschmark of 2.7778. It is a memory of
currency dealers screaming
down the phone, of wave after wave of official
intervention to support sterling being swatted aside by the sheer weight of
selling pressure. The lesson of this neither is nor should be that financial
markets will out in all cases. Rather, it is that the currency market has
become so huge that it simply cannot be resisted for any length of time. In the
case of “Black Wednesday” — or “White Wednesday”
as many would have it
subsequently — the UK economy was experiencing a severe recession and thus
simply could not tolerate the raising of UK interest rates needed to support
sterling and keep it within its ERM band commitment. The economic pain of this
interest rate and exchange rate commitment was completely at odds with the
economic reality in the UK at that time. Moreover,
UK foreign exchange reserves
were fast being wiped out in that defensive effort. In 1992, the global
currency market’s daily turnover was the equivalent of USD880 billion,
according to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) tri-annual survey.
Thus, the Bank of England’s ability to intervene to support sterling, albeit in
the billions,
was dwarfed by the size of the forces opposing it. As of the 1998
BIS survey, daily turnover had increased to some USD1.5 trillion, subsequently
falling back to USD1.2 trillion in the 2001 survey in the wake of the creation
of the Euro.
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