The euro may
extend the gains as inflation confronts the betting on ECB stimulus. The
dollar interprets the U.S. news flow continues regarding the expectations of a
reduction of QE.
Interview
approaches
- Euro could rise if the CPI increase
on stimulus expectations for ECB overloaded
- U.S. dollar considered news flow
continues through eyes of a Fed QE outlook
- NZ dollar develops in Asia amid signs
of resistance against strong currency than average
The preliminary
data of the CPIs of the euro zone in May are the headlines of
the calendar in European trading hours . It is expected that
inflation will rise to 1.4 percent year on year, which is the first increase in
eight months. A surprise on the upside, according to the German data ,
which were released earlier in the week, could dampen the expectations of a
short-term extension of a stimulus and the ECBeuro support.
Later, the focus
is directed to the numbers on the private income and expenditures of
the U.S. and also to the Chicago PMI survey and the
final revision of the measure of consumer confidence from the
University of Michigan in May. Traders will continue to regard the U.S.
economic news through the eyes of policy expectations for the Fed, with stronger
results probably the bets will heat up relatively rapidly to a retreat from the
monthly QE purchases. Such an outcome is likely the U.S. dollar inflation,
while weak numbers should cause the opposite effect.
The currency
markets were in consolidation mode overnight, with little change majors, as
traders digested the increase in volatility over the last week. The New
Zealand dollar proved to be well supported in the trading session and
put on encouraging economic data on average 0.4 percent against its top
counterparts.
The terms
of trade index rose unexpectedly in the first quarter to 4.1 percent,
which represents the largest increase in three years, while the scale for the
ANZ economic optimism reached its highest level since July
2011. Together, the results indicate the resistance to the strong exchange
rate, which threatens to undermine the growth in an economy in which exports
account for nearly 30 percent of GDP.
Take advantage
of the mood in the market with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index
Asian
trading hours:
GMT
|
WHRG
|
EVENT
|
ACT
|
FORECAST
|
PREV
|
22:45
|
NZD
|
Terms of trade index (QoQ) (1Q)
|
4.1%
|
1.5%
|
-1.2%
|
23:01
|
GBP
|
GfK survey on the consumption of confidence (MAI)
|
-22
|
-26
|
-27
|
23:15
|
JPY
|
Nomura / JMMA PMI manufacturing (MAI)
|
51.5
|
-
|
51.1
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
Household expenditure (yoy) (APR)
|
1.5%
|
3.0%
|
5.2%
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
Make money to candidates (APR)
|
0.89
|
0.87
|
0.86
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
Unemployment rate (APR)
|
4.1%
|
4.1%
|
4.1%
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
National CPI (YoY) (APR)
|
-0.7%
|
-0.7%
|
-0.9%
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
National CPI excl fresh food (YoY) (APR)
|
-0.4%
|
-0.4%
|
-0.5%
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
National CPI excl Food, Energy (YoY) (APR)
|
-0.6%
|
-0.7%
|
-0.8%
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
Tokyo CPI (yoy) (MAI)
|
-0.2%
|
-0.4%
|
-0.7%
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
Tokyo CPI excl fresh food (yoy) (MAI)
|
0.1%
|
-0.2%
|
-0.3%
|
23:30
|
JPY
|
Tokyo CPI excl Food, Energy (YoY) (MAI)
|
-0.3%
|
-0.7%
|
-0.7%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Industrial Production (MoM) (APR P)
|
1.7%
|
0.6%
|
0.9%
|
23:50
|
JPY
|
Industrial Production (YoY) (APR P)
|
-2.3%
|
-3.4%
|
-6.7%
|
1:00
|
NZD
|
ANZ economic optimism (MAI)
|
41.8
|
-
|
32.3
|
1:00
|
NZD
|
ANZ activities outlook (MAI)
|
34.3
|
-
|
30.3
|
1:30
|
AUD
|
Credit to the private sector (MoM) (APR)
|
0.3%
|
0.3%
|
0.2%
|
1:30
|
AUD
|
Credit to the private sector (yoy) (APR)
|
3.1%
|
3.0%
|
3.2%
|
1:35
|
CNY
|
MNI Business Sentiment Indicator (MAI)
|
56.7
|
57.1
|
58.5
|
3:00
|
NZD
|
M3 (yoy) (APR)
|
6.5%
|
-
|
7.0%
|
4:00
|
JPY
|
Production of motor vehicles (yoy) (APR)
|
-6.5%
|
-
|
-16.4%
|
5:00
|
JPY
|
Housing Starts (YoY) (APR)
|
5.8%
|
4.1%
|
7.3%
|
5:00
|
JPY
|
Works contracts (yoy) (APR)
|
2.0%
|
-
|
-3.4%
|
5:00
|
JPY
|
Annualized Housing Starts (APR)
|
0.939 million
|
0.923 million
|
0.904 million
|
European
trade time:
GMT
|
WHRG
|
EVENT
|
EXPECTED / AKT
|
PREV
|
EFFECT
|
6:00
|
EUR
|
German Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)
|
0.4% (A)
|
-0.1%
|
Means
|
6:00
|
EUR
|
German Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)
|
1.8% (A)
|
-2.5%
|
Means
|
7:00
|
CHF
|
KOF leading indicator for Switzerland (APR)
|
1.07
|
1.02
|
Means
|
8:00
|
EUR
|
Italian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted (APR P)
|
11.6%
|
11.5%
|
Deep
|
8:00
|
EUR
|
Italian unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted (1.Q.)
|
11.6%
|
11.2%
|
Deep
|
8:30
|
GBP
|
Net consumer credit (APR)
|
0.4 billion
|
0.5 billion
|
Deep
|
8:30
|
GBP
|
Net loans Sec. Dwellin on (APR)
|
0.5 billion
|
0.4 billion
|
Deep
|
8:30
|
GBP
|
Mortgage approvals (APR)
|
54.6 thousand
|
53.5 thousand
|
Means
|
8:30
|
GBP
|
M4 money supply (MoM) (APR)
|
-
|
-0.9%
|
Deep
|
8:30
|
GBP
|
M4 money supply (yoy) (APR)
|
-
|
0.3%
|
Deep
|
8:30
|
GBP
|
M4 ex IofC 3M, saar (APR)
|
3.3%
|
4.6%
|
Deep
|
9:00
|
EUR
|
Estimated the Euro-zone CPI (yoy) (MAI)
|
1.4%
|
1.2%
|
High
|
9:00
|
EUR
|
Euro-zone CPI - Core (YoY) (MAI A)
|
1.1%
|
1.0%
|
Means
|
9:00
|
EUR
|
Euro-zone unemployment rate (APR)
|
12.2%
|
12.1%
|
Means
|
